What happened
On August 7, 2026, the University of Arizona’s Economic and Business Research Center released its third-quarter forecast for the Tucson metro area. The forecasters expect housing permits to fall 10.6% this year and to keep sliding in 2027 and 2028. They cite slower population growth and high mortgage rates as the main reasons. They also project slow job growth, about 0.2% in 2026, and population growth of about 0.6%.
The center’s August 2026 monthly summary shows a market that is holding steady rather than falling. In July, about 1,188 homes sold in the Tucson area, down 2% from a year earlier, and the median sale price was $364,900, nearly flat. Permits bounced around month to month in the spring and early summer, with June’s total of 437 units up 17.2% from June 2025 after a weak May.
What this means for your pool
When fewer homes are being built and prices are flat, many families decide to stay where they are and improve the home they have. A backyard is often the first project on the list. A few things to keep in mind:
- Build for how long you’ll stay. A pool pays you back mostly in use, not resale. If you plan to stay five years or more, you get many seasons of swimming, cooler evenings and time with family. Our post on whether pools add value in Tucson looks at resale in more detail.
- Remodeling is an option. If you already have an older pool, new plaster, tile, coping and a fresh deck can change the whole yard for less than a new build. See our pool remodeling page for what that work includes.
- Budget for the full project. New custom concrete pools from Meraki typically run about $40,000 to $120,000 or more, depending on size, features and site conditions. Our pool cost guide explains what drives the number up or down.
- Plan ahead for spring. Many Tucson families want to swim by early summer. Starting design and permits in fall or winter gives time for HOA review, permits and construction.
- Think about running costs too. Water and power rates are rising in the Tucson area. Efficient equipment, a cover and a right-sized pool help keep monthly costs in check.
How we can help
We build custom concrete pools and spas, along with decks, outdoor kitchens and barrier walls, across the Tucson area. We start with a 3D design so you can see the yard before we dig. If you are weighing a new pool against a remodel, contact us and we can walk through both.
Source: University of Arizona Economic and Business Research Center
Put this story to work
Planning your own project? See our Custom Pool Construction in Tucson and Pool Remodeling & Renovation in Tucson.
Questions pool owners are asking
Are Tucson home prices going up in 2026?
Not by much. The University of Arizona's August 2026 summary reported a July median sale price of $364,900 in the Tucson metro area, essentially flat from a year earlier, with sales down about 2%.
Why are housing permits expected to drop?
UA forecasters expect Tucson-area housing permits to fall 10.6% in 2026 and keep declining in 2027 and 2028. They point to slower population growth and high mortgage rates.
Does a pool add value to a Tucson home?
A well-built pool can add appeal and some value in a hot climate like Tucson, but it rarely returns its full cost at sale. Most families build a pool because they plan to use it for years.
This is our summary and commentary. Read the original story at University of Arizona Eller College, Economic and Business Research Center.